Reflections on the Election of 2004

My initial thoughts on yesterday's election.

National Election:

I believe that moral issues (right and wrong), faith and the 'trust factor' were the reasons for Bush's decisive win yesterday. Though important from a policy perspective and appealing to the rational man, it's not the war in Iraq and it's not the economy that were the deciding factors. In that final moment in the voting booth I think people who are not committed always vote from the gut. Bush was believable and sincere, worthy of trust. Kerry was not.

The election results reveal that the 'common man' in America responds not as as the eastern and western liberal elites (those Blue states) would hope they would, to rational policy, plans and strategies. Another reality is that labor unions and ethnic votes are not monolithic. People make up their minds based on trust and who they think will improve their personal lot. While black and Hispanic voting has not yet been analyzed, I think we'll see that they now vote not as a bloc as they may have heretofore, but as individuals who listen to their heart, not the traditional party label they may be assigned.

Traditional Democrats now have no choice but to reevaluate what they think 'works.' As people become invested in the stock market through 401(k)s and other vehicles and can plainly see that Bush and Republican policies generate personal wealth, the 'entitlement mentality,' historically sponsored by Democrats, fails to produce assure voters will vote for Democrats. To the extent that Democrats rely on the traditional 'playbook,' they will continue to lose. As an example, the best option to preserve Social Security is personal accounts which will accumulate value based on a market economy. If that plan is implemented, it will benefit Republican values and hurt the Democratic 'entitlement' worldview. In reality, the government cannot be the savior for those who choose a 'victim mentality.'

Americans are individuals, not voting blocs, and the Democrats should heed this reality or they will continue to lose credilbility and elections.

Another thing we learned is that the pre-election polls and the 'exit' polls, are helpful, but not definitive. Keep in mind that people do not always tell the truth to anonymous callers or interviewers.

Vermont Election:

Vermonters trust Douglas and Dubie and reelected them overwhelmingly yesterday. Because they are not easily deceived, voters assured that Brock defeated Ready, a lightweight and dishonest to boot. Unfortunately, the Legislature has become more liberal at a time when we Vermonters have appetites for government spending that we cannot afford. After all, there are only 610,000 of us. Douglas may find himself in the position of exercising the veto more frequently than in the past. Our fiscal health cannot be left to the liberal legislature.

I feel Vermont is out of step with the nation and while Republicans...honest and decent folks... hold the top offices, the Legislature is disposed to spend beyond its means. Vermont, philosophically, is a Blue state but it cannot afford what Blue states believe government should accomplish.

Now, we can all listen to the talking-head pundits and recognize that they know no more than we do. Thanks, democracy, for prevailing!