I'm not advocating cheap oil. Price signals are the best stimulus for change and we will gradually move away from our reliance on traditional petroleum for transportation. But we shouldn't underestimate the time it will take to change the transportation fuel infrastructure.For example, people are experimenting with hydrogen powered cars but the delivery and storage problems are BIG. The answer for transportation will be a mix of fuel/energy sources, but petroleum will be the biggest component by far throughout my lifetime.
Today, energy sources are not wholly interchangeable. Major reworking of our infrastructure, culture and economy will be necessary for that to happen. For example, electricity from 'clean' coal is not a direct substitute for petroleum until electric cars become far more widespread and they can be charged when and where needed. We'll get far quicker petroleum savings from millions of cars that get 40-50 mpg. Europe does it now. We can and should, too. We need far more low-sulfur diesel fueled autos.
Too many people believe that wind and solar are the answer to our electricity needs when 'clean' coal and nuclear are the only viable sources to meet baseload electricity demand which will increase under my scenario. I'll bet you my fuel cell powered wheelchair that wind and solar combined will contribute less than 5% of our total energy/fuel use by 2040!
I believe we can conserve and become more efficient in things that use all forms of energy by ~15% in the near term. However, despite our best efficiency efforts, demand will continue to grow as population increases in an electronic age.
I certainly agree that we would be better off ensuring our energy future than fighting in Iraq, but if "it's all about oil" as many contend, the Middle East will be critical to our energy supply for a long, long time. If we should not be there militarily, how would we ensure that supply continues?
My point is we must wean ourselves off Middle East, and probably African oil, too, for transportation needs, but that will not happen quickly despite our best efforts.
3 comments:
Super analysis of the energy situation. Very enjoyable reading!!!
Some of the best posts I've seen on energy are at Minor-Heresies.com.
Here's one called "The Hydrogen Humvee and Other Fairy Tales"
http://www.minor-heresies.com/?p=118
You might find this writer very interesting.
The Minor Heresies analysis (recommended by Haik Bedrosian)of Arnold's Humvee energy usage translated into solar and wind power equivalents is a wonderful reality check on energy interchangeability and costs. I assume the math is correct.
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