Mineral Wealth Estimate Excites Afghan Officials - NYTimes.com

Mineral Wealth Estimate Excites Afghan Officials - NYTimes.com:

Here's a game-changer! If mineral assets in Afghanistan are worth a trillion or more dollars, economic opportunity may soon trump radical Islam as the driving force determining the future of the country.

Wouldn't the radical Islamic fundamentalists love to get their hands on this wealth to fund their jihad against the West! The stakes in the Aghan war just rose dramatically!

"According to the report, which was described Monday in The New York Times, Afghanistan has at least $1 trillion in mineral deposits that have yet to be unearthed. It is a potential income source so vast that if it were tapped and the wealth handled in a way to benefit the whole population, the country could be transformed. It would also turn Afghanistan into a mining center.

That would, however, require a substantial change in the country’s circumstances, since many of the reserves were found in politically unstable areas, said Mr. Omar, the Mines Ministry spokesman.

“Mining is not like a shop that you can open and immediately take advantage of,” he said, adding that it would most likely take five to 10 years before the country could begin to use those reserves."

The full Times story is here.

Haiti's Grim Future

Worse than grim. How else to describe the future of the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.

According to the CIA factbook, "Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere with 80% of the population living under the poverty line and 54% in abject poverty. Two-thirds of all Haitians depend on the agricultural sector, mainly small-scale subsistence farming, and remain vulnerable to damage from frequent natural disasters, exacerbated by the country's widespread deforestation."

Haiti's population is 9 million. Nearly half the people over the age of 15 are illiterate. The data below with a comparison to Vermont exemplify the massive economic dilemma. The bottom line is that Haiti has practically no functioning economy. Unemployment (pre-earthquake) is estimated between 66%-70%.

	Population	Gross Domestic Product	GDP/Capita
Haiti	9.0 Million	$9 Billion	$1,300
Vermont	0.62 Million	$22 Billion	$34,900

In 2008, four hurricanes further devastated the economy and the country. The recent earthquake killed upwards of 200,000 leaving ~1.5 million homeless (17% of the population). The human tragedy is beyond comprehension, but as heroic efforts to supply basic necessities continue, people are contemplating the future of the country. There are no easy answers for Haiti.

Key elements for a viable future include:

1. Western Hemisphere countries and beyond must come together with tens of billions in rebuilding aid which will be required for a decade or two at minimum. Moreover, rebuilding to meet basic needs for housing, health, education, jobs and industry must take into account item 2. below.

2. Decisions will be necessary about the future economy of Haiti. In its present condition, it's a failed state, economically and politically. Who will make the decisions about the country's viable future economy? Can it ever survive, let alone thrive, on its own? Must it become a ward of the U.N. for a generation or more? What are the likely mainstays underpinning a viable Haitian economy?

3. Literacy and learning are vital elements for any hope of success considering Haiti's decades of culture dominated by corruption, severe poverty and superstition.

4. Effective security and policing must be integral to building a culture of security and hope.

Obama Stimulus Plan Could Create 8,000+ Jobs

Preseident-elect Obama announced that his stimulus plan could create as many as 3.6 million jobs in the U.S. during the next two years. If Congress approves and his plan is implemented, Vermont could gain more than 8,000 jobs on the assumption that our state would share proportionately in the national job growth.

Again, assuming we gain non-farm jobs in all the primary employment sectors in the same proportion that Obama proposes to create them nationally, the Vermont gains could be:

Mining - 29
Construction - 1632
Manufacturing - 1082
Wholesale Trade - 274
Retail Trade - 1595
Information - 99
Financial Activities - 342
Professional and Business Services - 442
Education and Health Services - 738
Leisure and Hospitality - 1187
Utilities - 34
Transportation and Warehousing - 156
Government Total - 615

My data is here.

Of course, this estimate reflects the best of circumstances and certainly does not take into account jobs that will be lost during these two years.

New Jobs in Vermont - All Government

This simple table published by the Vermont group Public Assets, should reveal to any observer, assuming they're not Socialists, what's wrong with Vermont's economy. Negative job growth in the private sector during the last 7 years. All new job growth (4,500) is in the government sector (state, federal and local).

Wonder why your taxes continue to rise? It's no secret.

Douglas Proposes Economic Stimulus Package

Below is from the Burlington Free press on April 20. 2008. The hopeful sign is that our government in Montpelier is finally, if belatedly, recognizing that they should be focusing on important economic and fiscal issues, rather than dithering about minutiae and global issues over which they have little or no control.

DOUGLAS' ECONOMIC PROPOSAL

Highlights of Gov. Jim Douglas' proposed economic stimulus package, which he released Saturday: $80 million in new bonding over five years for road and bridge repairs; $17.4 million in bonds purchased by the state retirement funds to help fund purchases of manufactured homes, downpayments, closing costs and repairs for first-time home buyers; a weekendlong sales-tax holiday at a cost of $1.9 million to the state; a weeklong sales-tax holiday on energy-efficient appliances at a cost of $100,000 to the state ; opportunity zones where employers could lease vacant industrial facilities tax-free; up to $10 million in economic tax credits for businesses that use environmentally friendly processes or create environmentally friendly technology; $18 million in low-interest loans for business expansion and creation; payroll tax credits for manufacturers in areas of the state with the highest unemployment; increased sales of timber from state land to help Vermont's wood-products industry; toll-free advice at 888-568-4547 for Vermonters who face foreclosure and help in negotiating a 60-day grace period with lenders.

Bravo Freep!

Today's editorial in the Burlington Free Press exposes the flaws in the affordable housing bill under discussion in the Legislature.

"...Housing within the reach of a broad range of incomes is key to ensuring prosperity in Vermont. Too often, we hear the cost of housing as among the reasons why an employer is unable to attract employees to fill an available job.

The only way housing prices will come down is if the supply increases or the demand falls. The latter would signal trouble because an economic slowdown is the usual reason behind falling demand. That leaves building more homes as the preferred solution.

Vermont has done a pretty good job of balancing the need for growth and protecting open lands that help define the state's character and image. That must continue. But in order to deal with the state's housing problem, those Vermonters who see growth as somehow diminishing the quality of life here need to get over the notion that development is a dirty word. "

Kudos to the Free Press editorial board for getting it right!