On a New Jersey Islet, Twilight of the Landline - NYTimes.com

The inevitable is upon us. POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service) is nearly dead

As George Gilder predicted in 1995 in his book Telecosm, the copper telephone network must/will die because of the dual drivers of rapid technological advances and the 'socialist' morass of subsidies and regulatory overburden that ruled the copper network fostering Universal Service in the U.S during the last 70+ years.

Gilder had this to say:

"The fact is that the universality of telephones is crucial to their usefulness; yet universal service using current technology is totally uneconomical and impractical. Snow and ice are the least of it. The basic problem is the architecture of the system, with a separate pair of lines, on average two miles long, devoted exclusively to each user. It simply does not pay to lay, entrench, string, protect, test and maintain miles of copper wire pairs, each dedicated to one household that uses them on average some 15 or 20 minutes a day."

...the idea persists that wireless telephony is an expensive supplement to the existing copper colossus rather than a deadly rival of it. The installed base of
twisted-pair wire still appears to many to be a barrier to entry for new competitors in the local loop, rather than a barrier to RBOC entry into modern communications markets.
The conventional wisdom sees the electromagnetic spectrum as a scarce resource. Few believe that it will soon emerge as a cheaper and better alternative to the local loop, in the same way that microwave emerged as a cheaper and better substitute for copper long-distance wires. 

The death throes will be played out in many locales typified by this example in Mantoloking, NJ.

On a New Jersey Islet, Twilight of the Landline - NYTimes.com: "Verizon’s move on this sliver of land is a look into the not-too-distant future, a foreshadowing of nearly all telephone service across the United States. The traditional landline is not expected to last the decade in a country where nearly 40 percent of households use only wireless phones. Even now, less than 10 percent of households have only a landline phone, according to government data that counts cable-based phone service in that category."

'via Blog this'

Internet Access and the New Divide - NYTimes.com

This story begins with a recounting that Cyber Monday's online sales volume in 2011 exceeded that of Black Friday's retail sales setting a new record. I thought I'd read about the good news that America's online experience was only getting better. Nope. We've got to do better...

 "Such numbers may seem proof that America is, indeed, online. But they mask an emerging division, one that has worrisome implications for our economy and society. Increasingly, we are a country in which only the urban and suburban well-off have truly high-speed Internet access, while the rest — the poor and the working class — either cannot afford access or use restricted wireless access as their only connection to the Internet. As our jobs, entertainment, politics and even health care move online, millions are at risk of being left behind."

Now, further into the story, Ms Crawford suggests it's time for regulators to intervene and fix the digital divide.

"IT doesn’t have to be this way, as a growing number of countries demonstrate. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ranks America 12th among developed nations for wired Internet access, and it is safe to assume that high prices have played a role in lowering our standing. So America, the country that invented the Internet and still leads the world in telecommunications innovation, is lagging far behind in actual use of that technology.
The answer to this puzzle is regulatory policy. Over the last 10 years, we have deregulated high-speed Internet access in the hope that competition among providers would protect consumers. The result? We now have neither a functioning competitive market for high-speed wired Internet access nor government oversight.
By contrast, governments that have intervened in high-speed Internet markets have seen higher numbers of people adopting the technology, doing so earlier and at lower subscription charges. Many of these countries have required telecommunications providers to sell access to parts of their networks to competitors at regulated rates, so that competition can lower prices."

But how will this happen? Will regulation be combined with government subsidies to build fiber optic networks to every home, which Ms Crawford suggests is the 'right' technology? She doesn't describe the new economics underlying the regulatory policy she believes is necessary. Lot's of advocacy, but little detail and the devil is always in the details.

I can hear the screams now from many quarters, "Don't regulate my Internet"

The fact is that the costs of fiber to the home for all of America are just too high unless there is long term revenue to pay for it.

One only has to look at Burlington, Vermont (in my backyard) for an example of a first rate fiber-to-the-premise system, built and managed by a city of 40,000, that cannot support itself because the costs of construction far exceeded estimates and the take rate of cable, voice and high speed Internet services provides insufficient revenue to pay for the costs of construction (debt service) and operations.

It will be fascinating to learn what Google's experience will be in Kansas City where they will do a similar thing.

In America's last century, we built a nationwide telephone system as a tightly regulated monopoly with massive internal subsidies for high cost areas. That regulatory model won't be repeated in this century, so I'm at a loss to understand what 'regulatory policy' will build an 'affordable' fiber network to everyone's home. Please elaborate, Ms Crawford.

FCC report ranks Vermont 38th in broadband access

FCC report ranks Vermont 38th in broadband access:

Read the story and you will find that our neighbor, New Hampshire, is at the top of the national list for broadband access. One more feather in NH's cap.

The highlighted statement by Chris Campbell suggests that at the national level some kind of subsidy plan is brewing to increase the rate of broadband adoption. I wonder how that will be paid for? I suspect that subsidies will flow to broadband providers in sparsely populated areas just as was the case for POTS service in the pre-Internet days.

"While the IBDR states that 60 percent of Vermont households have broadband, another FCC report released the same day, the Seventh Broadband Progress Report and Order on Reconsideration states that broadband is available to 93 percent of the state’s population. Roughly 33 percent of the population of Vermont has access to broadband, but does not use it.

The goal, Campbell [Executive Director of Vermont Telecommunications Authority], is 100 percent coverage and 100 percent adoption.

“There is a conversation that has begun at the national level about ‘how do we make sure that people can afford to have access to this technology?’” Campbell said."

What to Expect from Verizon's LTE Roll-out

I have thought all along that Verizon's LTE roll-out would see the marriage of Verizon and Apple around the iPhone and likely the iPad (version 2 due in 1Q2011). Verizon has and will embrace the best device technology that comes along because it means revenue for both the device maker and Verizon. How much for each becomes merely a matter of negotiation and deal-making.

"But the big question for Verizon's LTE network isn't whether it will support smartphones in the first half of 2011 but whether it will finally land an LTE-capable version of Apple's popular iPhone. Although rumors of a Verizon iPhone have swirled for years now, Hays thinks that Verizon's LTE launch would be the perfect setting for Apple to debut a new iPhone model.

'It's quite likely that Apple will seek to take advantage of Verizon's 4G network,' he says. 'Having an LTE-enabled iPhone and adopting new technology early would fit squarely with Apple's overall strategy.'"

What You Need to Know About White Space Wi-Fi - PCWorld Business Center

What You Need to Know About White Space Wi-Fi - PCWorld Business Center

This new free spectrum capacity authorized by the FCC earlier this week is a VERY BIG deal for all the reasons listed enumerated in the story.

We may have to wait for a couple of years for equipment to be available, but strategic deployment in rural areas may be the the best approach to filling gaps in in areas with spotty broadband coverage. Also, perhaps a new business model for suburban neighborhood deployment will be possible which could put a real dent in the revenues of cable and DSL providers, unless they choose to use it themselves to extend their services. I suspect Google will continue to be an active supporter as they move more into the telecom business.

My New Smartphone

I took the smartphone plunge. My old Motorola phone had a cracked glass face so I decided to upgrade to a new DROID2 from Verizon about a week ago.
This thing is a very powerful device but I'm just beginning to learn how to use it. I chose Android because I want to remain with Verizon Wireless and because I'm an inveterate Google user. The ability to manage Gmail and Calendar using the new and improved slider keyboard is so convenient. I have set it up to use Google Voice for calling and voice mail.
Android 2.2 (upgraded to 2.2.2 on Friday) is a powerful operating system and I particularly like the voice actuated search and calling tools in this Android release. Future software upgrades can only include improved capabilities.


I debated waiting for Verizon's 4G LTE roll-out and the powerful phones that will surely follow, but that's likely two+ years away in Vermont so I decided on the DROID2.


Since I have a MiFi hotspot device that has a few more months to run on its two-year contract, I'll hold off on activating the WiFi hotspot feature on the DROID2.

Joint Policy Proposal for an Open Internet - Verizon PolicyBlog

Joint Policy Proposal for an Open Internet - Verizon PolicyBlog

Verizon's Tom Tauke, Executive Vice president of Public Affairs, and Alan Davidson, Google Director of Public Policy, issued the proposal of the two companies. It seems a reasonable starting point to move the discussion of 'net neutrality' forward.

They propose a differentiation between wireless and wireline broadband Internet access, which, given wireless broadband's infancy and explosive growth, should not be unduly restricted or burdened.


Here are the seven elements of their joint proposal:

"First, both companies have long been proponents of the FCC’s current wireline broadband openness principles, which ensure that consumers have access to all legal content on the Internet, and can use what applications, services, and devices they choose.  The enforceability of those principles was called into serious question by the recent Comcast court decision. Our proposal would now make those principles fully enforceable at the FCC.

Second, we agree that in addition to these existing principles there should be a new, enforceable prohibition against discriminatory practices. This means that for the first time, wireline broadband providers would not be able to discriminate against or prioritize lawful Internet content, applications or services in a way that causes harm to users or competition.
Importantly, this new nondiscrimination principle includes a presumption against prioritization of Internet traffic - including paid prioritization. So, in addition to not blocking or degrading of Internet content and applications, wireline broadband providers also could not favor particular Internet traffic over other traffic.

Third, it’s important that the consumer be fully informed about their Internet experiences. Our proposal would create enforceable transparency rules, for both wireline and wireless services. Broadband providers would be required to give consumers clear, understandable information about the services they offer and their capabilities. Broadband providers would also provide to application and content providers information about network management practices and any other information they need to ensure that they can reach consumers.

Fourth, because of the confusion about the FCC’s authority following the Comcast court decision, our proposal spells out the FCC’s role and authority in the broadband space. In addition to creating enforceable consumer protection and nondiscrimination standards that go beyond the FCC’s preexisting consumer safeguards, the proposal also provides for a new enforcement mechanism for the FCC to use. Specifically, the FCC would enforce these openness policies on a case-by-case basis, using a complaint-driven process. The FCC could move swiftly to stop a practice that violates these safeguards, and it could impose a penalty of up to $2 million on bad actors.

Fifth, we want the broadband infrastructure to be a platform for innovation. Therefore, our proposal would allow broadband providers to offer additional, differentiated online services, in addition to the Internet access and video services (such as Verizon's FIOS TV) offered today. This means that broadband providers can work with other players to develop new services. It is too soon to predict how these new services will develop, but examples might include health care monitoring, the smart grid, advanced educational services, or new entertainment and gaming options. Our proposal also includes safeguards to ensure that such online services must be distinguishable from traditional broadband internet access services and are not designed to circumvent the rules. The FCC would also monitor the development of these services to make sure they don’t interfere with the continued development of Internet access services.

Sixth, we both recognize that wireless broadband is different from the traditional wireline world, in part because the mobile marketplace is more competitive and changing rapidly. In recognition of the still-nascent nature of the wireless broadband marketplace, under this proposal we would not now apply most of the wireline principles to wireless, except for the transparency requirement. In addition, the Government Accountability Office would be required to report to Congress annually on developments in the wireless broadband marketplace, and whether or not current policies are working to protect consumers.

Seventh, and finally, we strongly believe that it is in the national interest for all Americans to have broadband access to the Internet. Therefore, we support reform of the Federal Universal Service Fund, so that it is focused on deploying broadband in areas where it is not now available."

I need to study all this more fully.

Verizon iPhone 4G Release By Early 2011

Verizon iPhone 4G Release By Early 2011: Analyst | LA News Monitor

It really makes a lot of sense for Verizon to have a sooper dooper phone to accompany it's launch of its new LTE 4G network. Must it be dual band 3G/4G to be successful? That may well depend on how quickly VZ expands the LTE coverage across the U.S. A 4G only device may well be less expensive and the usage footprint will expand quickly.

This only complicates my smartphone buying decision. Should I buy now or wait for 4G in my area, unlikely before 2012? Maybe I'm better off buying 3G now and upgrading in 2012.

A review of T-Mobile's HSPA system - WSJ.com

A review of T-Mobile's HSPA system - WSJ.com

A nice summary by Walt Mossberg of the carriers' plans for 3G+ and 4G network rollouts and some side-by-side testing of T-Mobile's 3G+ network in the Washington DC area.

Looking forward to the broad deployment of these 4G networks, probably by 2012 in the Burlington area where I live, but suspect I'll have a 3G smartphone well before then.

Pew: Mobile Web Use Now The Norm

Pew: Mobile Web Use Now The Norm

I suppose it's nearing the time when I should join those who access the Internet via cell phone to increase the lowly % from my age cohort described in one of the charts accompanying this story. Besides, my 'old' non-smartphone has a crack in the glass face, but is perfectly functional. No, I didn't do it on purpose...it's a long story.

I have been using my laptop to connect via 3G for a few years, but have been agonizing over when and what kind of smartphone to purchase. My choice definitely needs to have WiFi hotspot capability even though the two-year contract on my Verizon MiFi runs until next April.

Could I upgrade that device to a smartphone with WiFi hotspot capability?

Should I wait for Verizon's LTE 4G to arrive in my area and buy a 4G smartphone or jump in now and upgrade in a couple of years? Or will iPhone really come to Verizon in 3Gg...or will Apple wait for 4G deployment before joining VZ?

Or is the Verizon Droid X what I need now to satisfy my technolust? I really like what I'm reading about Android.

All savvy advice welcomed!!

YouTube - Peek at the Future: Verizon Wireless Boston 4G LTE Trial

All we need now is the price for Verizon's 4G LTE and when it'll be in Vermont!

Broadband to Be Available for More Commercial Use - NYTimes.com

Nearly doubling the spectrum available for commercial wireless broadband during the next 10 years is good news indeed. Presumably the more efficient use of all spectrum is a companion goal.

As these announcements are made about the expansion of broadband, I think of George Gilder’s predictions more than a decade ago about the coming massive shift in how services are carried. Gilder predicted a massive migration of services carried on wire (telephony) to wireless and services carried on the air (broadcast television) to wireline (fiber optics and cable).

 

Broadband to Be Available for More Commercial Use - NYTimes.com

The future of AT&T: Of atrophying flesh and phones | The Economist

The future of AT&T: Of atrophying flesh and phones | The Economist:

Verizon will not fare much better. They will be earlier in the game than ATT with a 4G network, but the inertia of 3G will restrain customers from the new network unless they can deliver blockbuster devices and comparable prices to 3G. Maybe they'll have a fire sale on 3G to encourage deployment of all sorts of monitoring/measuring devices. As I understand it, initially new 4G phones will use 3G for voice and 4G for data.

"Hence the persistent speculation that AT&T’s boss, Randall Stephenson, may launch a bid for DirecTV, an American satellite broadcaster, to give his firm yet another means of entry to people’s homes. AT&T may also be tempted to buy a bigger foothold in fast-growing emerging markets. This week it denied rumours that it was in talks to buy a minority stake in India’s Reliance Communications. Finding the right partners abroad will be devilishly hard. But given the flesh-eaters stalking the American market, Mr Stephenson must be making plenty of calls."

We Have Met the Enemy and He is ...

Should I buy a Droid or not? I sometimes think I read too much. Well maybe not too much, but with excessive diversity. In any event, my recent 'try to keep up with PCs and technology' reading found this. (Credits to Steve Fox at PC World).

If you're like me, frequently dithering when deciding when and what to buy in the technology domain, Steve Fox at PC World quotes Patrick Noonan, a professor at Emory University, explaining our dilemma:

"Our brains work nothing at all like our computers do. To the extent that humans have an operating system, it's simply a heuristic engine shaped entirely by survival rules on the savannah, which is why all modern life tends to be perplexing and usually beyond our competence. We were shaped in an environment that didn't change much from century to century. And now a product life cycle lasts what...a month or two. We are seriously outmatched by the world we have created!"

Should I buy a Droid, a Nexus One, or wait for something better?

LTE Speeds Faster Than Expected in Verizon Trials - PCWorld Business Center

LTE Speeds Faster Than Expected in Verizon Trials - PCWorld Business Center

While WiMax 4G wireless from Sprint/Clearwire is now avaible in in limited markets, it seems Verizon wil have the first-mover advantage on a much larger scale. They intend to serve 30 or so markets this year. That means Vermont may see it in 2011 or 2012.

Pricing and tethering policies will determine whether LTE 4G service can be a substitute for wireline broadband. However, these potential upload and download speeds, which rival today's broadband connections, may make the service a viable substitute for DSL or even cable broadband.

Because the momentum is with mobile services and devices these days, I'd be concerned if I were a company offering only wireline broadband. These speeds and fair pricing signal a rapid uptake in 4G wireless services as they become widely available.

The limiting factor may well be a scarcity of available frequency spectrum. When that crunch arrives, the broadcast TV folks will be asked by the FCC to give up some of the spectrum they control, I'll bet.

Google's Move Into Fiber Networks

Mayor Kiss, Jonathan Leopold, the City Council, Burlington Telecom and city taxpayers may have just found their financial savior. They had better get cracking to write their application for Google's recently announced high speed fiber experiment.

Google doesn't have to place the fiber, except to insure the build-out is complete throughout the city. Google would be concerned only with the electronics and the premises equipment to insure that the high speeds they intend could be provided. The underlying fiber infrastructure should be perfectly adequate.

They'd have a major medical center and colleges and universities to participate and 38,000 potential residential customers along with hundreds of small businesses.

Burlington may also be able to leverage Google's investment in Clearwire to bring 4G WiMax wireless technology to the city.

What an opportunity! Sell BT to Google or bring them in as the 'private partner' recommended in the recent BT blue ribbon commission's report. This is a-once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to solve BT's and the taxpayers' financial problem.

(from WSJ 2/11/10)

Google said in a statement it knows "that other companies have been in this business a long time, and we're not pretending to have all the answers here." It added, "We do have experience with Web infrastructure from operating our data centers."

Ms. Ingersoll said Google will manage the deployment of the fiber network, but probably partner with contractors to help build it. Google said it would offer service at a speed of one gigabit per second—100 times faster than what many U.S. consumers have access to today.

Google Mobility and Cloud Focus

It's clear that Google's strategy is to leverage cloud computing and communications, particularly wireless emphasizing mobility. The launch of the Android OS, the NexusOne phone, its acquisition of Gizmo5, the Chrome browser and OS all point in this direction. Google Voice has the potential to be a killer app, particularly for small businesses. Coupled with Google Apps, all these platforms and devices spell long term trouble for Microsoft.

"...One not so discrete launch will be an enterprise version of the Google Voice phone management application for businesses.

Google Voice, used by more than 1.4 million users in the U.S., routes calls to users' home, work and mobile phones using a special number assigned by Google.

The free app doesn't currently connect calls from one PC to another, or between PCs and phones, or phones and phones. However, Google acquired Gizmo5, whose softphone technology works like the popular Skype VOIP app, connecting calls from PCs to PCs and from PCs to phones. Google plans to add these direct calling capabilities to Google Voice..."

Tablet computing: The book of Jobs | The Economist

Tablet computing: The book of Jobs | The Economist

The Economist's take on the iPad's likelihood to assist media that are in deep fininacial trouble is on the mark. It will not save some and will will help others. The NY Times which already has announced it intends to charge for electronic content will climb on board and likely gain some financial advantage. VP Niesenholz participated in the iPad kickoff event yesterday.

I think I'll reserve judgment on the possible success of the iPad until after it's launch. It's missing a few important features:

• no multitasking

• no Flash support
  

• no USB port

• no SD slot

...for starters.


More shortcomings described here and here. Microsoft can't be sitting on their hands in this space. My guess is they have something up their sleeve. Watch for it.

The Way Forward for Traditional News Content Generators

Content generation and content search/distribution are severable, particularly in this Internet age, but this distinction has always been possible had content generators/publishers chose to make it so in their earlier business models. Now they under under the hammer of competition for the once lucrative advertising dollars.

Today and tomorrow, the game's best hand is held by the distributors or those who control the revenue streams associated with distribution and ease of consumption. I think the best hope for content generators is to cut deals with (or own) the distributors who create the channels and have the ability to bill and collect either micro or subscription payments.

I think device manufacturers' products will eventually commoditize so that a Kindle, an iPhone, a tablet or a Droid will be differentiated only by screen size and a few customer convenience features. The valuable distribution management and customer 'ownership' will reside with the electronic distribution and consumption channels, e.g., the wireline and wireless carriers and the cablecos. Content is necessarily king, yes, but managing its distribution and consumption will likely be the bigger revenue magnet.

Digital Domain - AT&T Takes the Fall for the iPhone’s Glitches - NYTimes.com

Digital Domain - AT&T Takes the Fall for the iPhone’s Glitches - NYTimes.com

So, this story says that AT&T has a wireless network superior to Verizon's and the sullied reputation of AT&T's network is caused by poor design of the iPhone? Who to believe? I don't have an iPhone and so have no personal experience with either that phone or AT&T's network.

For me, ubiquitous coverage and reliability are most important. Since 2006 I have had Verizon's 3G BroadbandAccess service for laptop use on the road. On a U.S. cross-country RV trip in 2006, I found VZ's service to be broadly available and it has served me well since. I recently upgraded to the MiFi 'modem in your pocket' personal WiFi hotspot, and that's a very nice device that allows both Carol and I (and three others) to be connected simultaneously.

The marketing wars will continue, but now that Google's announcement of an Android phone in 2010 unconnected to a wireless provider is a big deal. Yesterday's initial reports did not state whether it would be available both for GSM networks (AT&T) and EVDO-RevA (Verizon). My guess is they will have a phone for both wireless technologies, although early reports said that Google employees recently had a GSM model to play with.