The Renewal of Civic Capitalism - NPQ – Nonprofit Quarterly - Promoting an active and engaged democracy.

Scott Harshbarger, Former Attorney General in Massachusetts, has it right in this graduation speech.

 "Civic capitalism is all about a robust business community, an engaged citizenry and a government that actively promotes your ability to provide a check on large institutions, from banks to corporations, and on government itself. It is about ensuring that democratic values endure, even as politicians and movements come and go. It is about rooting out corruption and insisting on honesty, opportunity, and full information, not just because it is the right thing to do, but because markets and civil society cannot function otherwise. Civic capitalism takes the long view, and teaches us that the government has a role in minimizing risks to the system—financial and otherwise—because that civil society is the base from which entrepreneurs and firms operate."

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Where Paul Krugman, Keynes are vulnerable - Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing - MarketWatch

Howard Gold Believes Krugman and Keynes are Wrong for Today's Economy.  I agree.


I believe America's unemployment is structural for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the impact of technology.


Growing the economy is complicated by the structural changes and dislocations from accelerating technological change which are ‘eating’ traditional jobs,  jobs that previously required humans, previously low-skill, low-priced humans. What’s happening now is that even higher skills are being replaced by technological efficiencies.

Already in many industries and occupations, we have seen that digital and robotic technologies have permanently displaced jobs and skills. With investments in these technologies companies can increase economic output without the corresponding labor component that was both expected and experienced experienced by workers in the past as America exited economic doldrums. The upshot is that many jobs simply will not return and the doldrums are more or less permanent.

As only one example among many, think about the implications in the not too distant future of cars and trucks that drive themselves more adroitly and safely than people can. Google and several other companies are developing such vehicles and as states allow them to to be registered and operated, we can expect more jobs to disappear.

The high skills required to service this new economy are in short supply because the education system lags behind the pace of technological change. Meanwhile, our self gratifying culture works against people desiring to be equipped to work hard to succeed. The ‘entitlement mentality’ pervades far too many lives. We see it in the growing expectations of a government that cannot afford these demands in an economy that is predicted to grow at half its historic rate into the future.

"But what if the problem isn’t only a dearth of demand? Krugman is adamant that current U.S. unemployment is not structural — i.e., that it has deeper causes such as a mismatch of skills between workers and the available jobs.

“…Structural unemployment is a fake problem, which mainly serves as an excuse for not pursuing real solutions,” he wrote. “…All the facts suggest that high unemployment in America is the result of inadequate demand — full stop.”

Actually, economists are divided on this issue — studies by the Chicago and San Francisco Fed support Krugman, while a recent International Monetary Fund paper pegged the structural contribution to long-term U.S. unemployment at 40%. That’s two million people, hardly trivial."

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A Look at Chrome OS Future

http://m.zdnet.com/blog/google/5-reasons-everyone-will-be-using-chrome-os-in-3-years/3649?pg=2

This ZDNET writer believes the Chrome OS will win a big chunk of market share. The battle is on between Google, MS and Apple. A key to winning will be the enterprise.

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Gym day...relaxing after workout. Quick photo from smartphone Blogger app

Verizon to kill unlimited data plans for existing subscribers | Mobile - CNET News

All good things must come to an end. There is no free lunch... at least not forever, anyway. Verizon also announced 4G LTE availability in my service area today so it's time to upgrade my phone to $(not a typo!)G soon.

"Verizon issued this statement on Thursday morning (5/17/12):
As we have stated publicly, Verizon Wireless has been re-evaluating its data pricing structure for some time. Customers have told us that they want to share data, similar to how they share minutes today. We are working on plans to provide customers with that option later this year.
We will share specific details of the plans and any related policy changes well in advance of their introduction, so customers will have time to evaluate their choices and make the best decisions for their wireless service. It is our goal and commitment to continue to provide customers with the same high value service they have come to expect from Verizon Wireless."

World Debt and GDP - Unsustainable

This is the chart I have been looking for.  Sorry, but the axis labels are not part of the graphic file. I have described them below. Thanks to Hayman Capital Management, LLC and Kyle Bass, via my dentist, for the lead to finally find it. Here is a comparison of the world's total  debt to GDP .

The dire conclusion is that the world's debt has grown at an 11% annual rate in these 9 years from $80 trillion to $220 trillion while the total world's GDP has grown only at a rate of ~4%. This is unsustainable and Bass' conclusion (in late 2011) is that hard defaults are imminent. See the full report and analysis here.

Blue = Public Debt Securities
Red = Private Debt Securities
Green = Bank Assets
Purple Line = Debt/GDP

The left axis is Total Global Debt in $Trillions from 0 at the bottom to $220 Trillion at the top ordinate. The columns are the years 2002 to 2010. The right axis is the Global Debt/GDP Ratio with the bottom axis at 240% to the top at 350%

Facebook's IPO - What to do?

Will 'irrational exuberance' drive up the price of Facebook shares at its IPO only to fall back soon after? Many rational folks caution this may be the case, but I'm betting many of FB's 900 million users will want a piece of the action on opening day. I'm not one of them.

From The Economist: "Investors who buy shares in the IPO will also have to accept that Mr Zuckerberg will continue to control more than 50% of the voting rights. “One person owning so much of a potential blue-chip company is more or less unheard of,” says Debarshi Nandy, a professor at Brandeis International Business School. Other tech firms, such as Google, have flourished under the tight control of small groups of founders, and Mr Zuckerberg shows every sign of maturing into an exceptional technology leader. But if something were to go badly wrong at Facebook in future, its shareholders will be able to do little more than give him a big thumbs down."

Quick Reference for Strands of Islam

Thanks to The Economist for this chart. Click here for the Economist story.

Vt homeowners work to help Lake Champlain - WCAX.COM Local Vermont News, Weather and Sports-

Vt homeowners work to help Lake Champlain - WCAX.COM Local Vermont News, Weather and Sports-

Our neighbor, Craig, and LCI folks discussing the of control stormwater runoff to keep pollutants out of the lake. Also includes a quick shot of our house.

Found this chart on Barry Ritholz's blog who reprinted analysis work done by Chris Turner to rebut some opinions and statements in April by Paul Krugman, who favors yet more government deficit spending. Turner's full analysis is here at the Ritholz blog.

My bottom line: Government spending has been out of control since 1978 and Congress is to blame. It's easier to target Presidents, but Congress is the real culprit. They refuse to make the hard choices and persuade the American people of their necessity. Instead, they do everything possible to retain/gain political power rather than address the problems.

Is it any wonder the American public's approval rating of the job Congress is doing is at an all time low of ~18%?

The record of the last 4 years is crystal clear to me. The massive stimulus spending triggered by the near meltdown of the economy in 2008 caused by a combination of extraordinary risky behavior by Wall Street and failed government policies and regulation has failed to resolve the economic doldrums while at the same time creating massive and unsustainable debt. This debt will likely be resolved by devaluing the currency in the future with massive consequences.  It cannot possibly be paid off even by our great-great grandchildren.