BBC NEWS | Middle East | Al-Qaeda in Iraq 'reduced by 75%'

While the road ahead in Iraq is long and arduous, the BBC reports that the 'surge' with General Petraeus' leadership has apparently reduced the level of violence and severely limited Al Qaeda's influence. Why isn't the American media reporting the same good news. Is it because they see this positive result as bad for the Democrats?

I expect little credit will be given to Bush for this turn of events, but the improvement, thanks to our military, cannot be denied. Now, the harder task is for the politicians and the State Department to move the Iraqis toward resolution of as many of their differences as possible.

"The BBC's Jo Floto in Baghdad says there are a number of other factors behind the security gains, such as a six-month ceasefire announced in August by the Mehdi Army militia of Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr.

But perhaps most crucial, says our correspondent, has been the emergence of Sunni militias who once fought the Americans and the Iraqi government but are now fighting al-Qaeda.

In his year-end review for media, Gen Petraeus said US figures
showed the number of overall attacks had fallen by 60% since June."

The Futurist's Top 10 Predictions for 2008

These predictions obviously extend beyond 2008 and their overall tenor is pessimistic and problematic. My grandchildren will inherit a very different world than the one I grew up in.

1. The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025.

Is this good news or not? I would argue it is, but the socialists among us will say this represents more unequal wealth distribution.

2. Fashion will go wired as technologies and tastes converge to revolutionize the textile industry.

This is good news because more jobs will be created as
people buy this stuff.

3. The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States.

Definitely bad news, but should we expect something
different as we have exported our manufacturing base, and lately our financial interests as Asian companies invest in many of America's largest banks and financial institutions to help bail them out of the sub-prime mortgage mess.

4. Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society.

Mixed news here. Criminals are alive and apparently
thriving. If we move more or our financial life online, the security must increase simultaneously.

5. The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event.

Very bad news, indeed.

6. Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century.

More bad news, but big companies will make a lot of money on this....GE for one.

7. World population by 2050 may grow larger than previously expected, due in part to healthier, longer-living people.

Should we expect anything less as medical science and agriculture continue to enable peole to live longer. The strain on the world's resources is the bad news.

8. The number of Africans imperiled by floods will grow 70-fold by 2080.

More bad news for the basket case that is most of Africa.

9. Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic.

Mixed news here. On one hand, the expanding
population must have resources, particularly fossil fuels and minerals. On the other hand , more people and development in the cold, but warming, North will displease the environmentalists.

10. More decisions will be made by nonhuman entities.

Not good, but because technology has advanced to this state, robots and other macro and micro devices will pervade our lives.

A Possum in the Neighborhood

Early this morning an opossum paid a visit to our neighborhood. From the neighbor's yard across the stree, it crossed the road and our front yard and evenyually found its way underneath our right side neighbor's deck.

I had never seen one in Vermont before, but they are common now, although when the state was settled, there were none north of Pennsylvania, according to the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department.

Strange to see one, but our Airedales and the neighbor's dog and cat were unaware of it.

Not a Pretty Picture

The Economist writes a gloomy assessment for 2008. It's hard to fathom that rational, albeit greedy, people would loan these huge sums to others with shaky credit. If banking is regulated, should other financial enterprises and complex debt instruments also be bound by similar rules? I'd be the last to want a huge bureaucracy created to do this, but massive amounts of debt writedown, in the range of $200-300 billion by The Economist's and others' reckoning is way over the top.

Financiers and others seem to think little downside risk is possible in a growing global economy. Reality has proven them wrong. Is all this the result of the web-like interconnectedness of financing these days?

American banks Unhappy new year Economist.com

China Grabs West’s Smoke-Spewing Factories - New York Times

The media thrives on beating up on America to be greener, but the real pollution mess has moved to China. The global economic effect of pollution control in China will be significantly higher prices for manufactured goods. If the West moves rapidly down the path of carbon control, how will the world influence China (and India) to reduce its emissions? Not much leverage when these countries are the world's manufacturing mecca.

My guess is that China and India are in a position to hold the world hostage to pay for cleanup in their countries in coming decades by simply increasing the price of goods they produce.

"This mass shift of polluting industries has blighted China’s economic rise. Double-digit growth rates have done less to improve people’s lives when the damages to the air, land, water and human health are considered, some economists say. Outmoded production equipment will have to be replaced or retrofitted at high cost if the country intends to reduce pollution.

China’s worsening environment has also upended the geopolitics of global warming. It produces and exports so many goods once made in the West that many wealthy countries can boast of declining carbon emissions, even while the world’s overall emissions are rising quickly.

The Ruhr Valley city of Dortmund, where ThyssenKrupp once made steel, still suffers from high unemployment because of the loss of jobs to lower-cost countries like China. But Germans can buy Chinese-made iPods, washing machines and cargo ships at prices that, because of lax pollution controls, do not reflect the toll on the environment. And the outsourcing of polluting industries has given them cleaner air and water."

Italy’s Man From God - New York Times

Kudos to Roger Cohen for this piece of investigative journalism which suggests (to me, at least) that the Clintons are once more involved with shady operations/operators, whether knowingly or not is another question. The fact that President Bill Clinton is a senior adviser to a Burkle enterprise that did a deal with Follieri's croup, all facilitated by a senior Bill Clinton aide smells bad. Big, big money involved here.

Following this saga as the Republicans make hay with it should be fascinating. Let's see if the media asks Hillary about her involvement. What Cohen's piece doesn't state is whether any of the people mentioned are donors to Hillary's campaign. Seems likely that they are because so much money is floating around these deals.

Graphical Presentation of Complex Data

I stumbled upon this video (others like it are available on YouTube or at the Gapminder site)and if you're interested in more of this Swede's amazing graphical analysis of statistical data about what's happening in the countries of the world, go to www.gapminder.org.

Google has recently acquired the software and the programmers who created it. We should hope to see more from them on this creative way of 'organizing the world's information.'

Vermont Rejects Sale of Verizon Lines - New York Times

Not an unexpected decision, because the Public Service Board has a statutory interval to decide a case after it's filed, but the game's not over. Maine and NH regulators have yet to decide the case. As a practical matter, all three will agree to fundamentally the same terms and conditions except for some variations, e.g., in the area of service quality standards or technology deployment.

Vermont Tiger: Saying You'll Reduce CO2 Doesn't Make It So

A good bit of information is contained in the linked post about the Kyoto protocol and the failure of the signatories to meet the CO2 emission standards. The U.S. not signing on in 1998 under Clinton and that position continuing under Bush is a good thing. As I see it, the only outcome from Kyoto was a raising of awareness about climate change.

I become more convinced that the economics of CO2 emission reductions advocated by some who would 'save the planet' just plain don't work when compared to other uses of those resources in the next century.

Will Enough Men Stand By This Woman? - washingtonpost.com

I'll bet Mrs. Clinton does not appreciate this analysis by the Washington Post:

"But in several interviews with Democratic men across the country, the stated reasons for their aversion to Clinton seem more complicated, and in many cases, far more visceral than substantive.

They just don't like her, some say. They don't know what she stands for. They believe her word is no good, that she doesn't believe that she can be held accountable. They see her as intellectual snob who lets you know she's smarter. They say she sounds like everybody's ex-wife. They can't tell if she's the loyal, traditional wife who stayed with her husband for love after his humiliating extramarital affair -- or a canny politician who stayed because it was politically expedient. Even: Is she a Yankees or a Cubs fan?"

Faster Chips Are Leaving Programmers in Their Dust - New York Times

The notion of parallel computing and multi-core processors will gain tremendous traction in light of the chip energy/heat crisis that the hardware gurus have been frantically trying to solve. The effort can only be effective if code jockeys keeps up with the processor guys and gals at Intel and AMD. The nation's and the world's attention to energy and conservation of same will help propel this new era in computing. The future is Wow!

With Regrets, New Orleans Is Left Behind - New York Times

I know it's easy to say sitting here in Vermont, but New Orleans should plan for a smaller, different, safer city. Hoping for the return of the New Orleans that once was is a romantic dream. The suffering and fracturing of families and communities is a terrible tragedy. But does it make any sense to try to put Humpty Dumpty together again in a place that is at risk for more devastation, not to mention the rampant crime, corruption and demonstrated incompetence?

Leaving old New Orleans behind for a different, smaller city without corruption, with competent leadership and a clear vision for what the city should be is the direction they should take. A tragic hope for what was is a terrible waste of energy, besides the huge amount of money that would be required to make the city safe from future flooding.

The flood-prone ares should be made into parks or planted to vegetation to accommodate Nature and the floods that will come again, rather than trying to build levees around the 'bowl' waiting to be filled again with water

Google’s Chief on What’s Different - New York Times

Eric Schmidt is the very bright chief executive at Google ruminating on the question asked by Steve Lohr at the NY Times: What is really different now?

This short piece is worth reading for insight into Schmidt's thinking. Note particularly his reference to the social graph. We think we know what this means, but capturing the reality is obviously high on Google's list of priorities. Their new initiative, OpenSocial, portrays this belief which is intended to move far beyond Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn and Ning (and others)...and to make money with their advertising while doing so.

Bali Climate Talks - Global Warming - New York Times

How should I reconcile these two statements? They are both true, but the spin by the NY Times gives me indigestion. If the Times is reporting news and doing so with credibility, the statement that includes George W. Bush should also include William J. Clinton.

"The overall agreement, if completed by 2009, would also ensure continuity for parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which took effect in 2005 and is the only existing addendum to the original climate treaty. The Kyoto pact limits emissions by three dozen industrialized countries but has been rejected by the United States under President George W. Bush."

From Wikipedia:

On July 25, 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was finalized (although it had been fully negotiated, and a penultimate draft was finished), the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95–0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98),^[66][67] which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States". On November 12, 1998, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the protocol. Both Gore and Senator Joseph Lieberman indicated that the protocol would not be acted upon in the Senate until there was participation by the developing nations.^[68] The Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol to the Senate for ratification. (my emphasis added)

The Keeling Curve

Click on the link to see the Keeling Curve, a measure of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa in Hawaii since 1958.

Why I Oppose a Carbon Tax | Economics | The American Scene

Jim Manzi, software entrepreneur and former head of Lotus Development Corporation, makes a strong case against imposing a carbon tax. His basic argument is that such a draconian measure imposed on the developed world is not necessary or warranted now to hedge against extreme hysteria surrounding an unprovable and unlikely risk of catastrophe.

Instead, he argues that large government sponsored and funded R&D programs in the single $billions/year range could develop technologies to ameliorate emissions with little damage to the economies of the Western world compared to a carbon tax that would likely never go away.

If It’s Fresh and Local, Is It Always Greener? - New York Times

Nothing is as simple as it seems. The nuances of buying local vs. buying organic vs. buying food from afar in terms of one's carbon footprint is far more complex than it may seem. The efficiencies of scale have a profound effect on carbon generation. Read the article if you really want to digest the complexities of consumer food purchases.

If It’s Fresh and Local, Is It Always Greener? - New York Times

Energy Efficiency Charge on Vermont Electric Bills

My December monthly bill for electricity from Green Mountain Power shows the new Energy Efficiency Charge increasing 34.7% per kWh for residential customers. Well, it wasn't expressed that way. I had to do my own arithmetic. The letter accompanying the bill should have shown the percentage changes in these charges for the various customer classes, Residential, Commercial, Industrial, etc. Instead, the new charges and the present charges are shown in $/kWh ( Residential increasing from $0.00496 to $0.00668 per kWh).

No one relates to tenths of a cent per kWh. The letter would have been more relevant if it had stated why these rates were increased by such a large amount and when the decision was made to do so. (I presume by a recent order of the Vermont Public Service Board). An explanation for the magnitude of the increase should also have been included in the letter.

For what it's worth, I believe the participants in Efficiency Vermont who are the primary cost causers and beneficiaries of the program should fund the program through part of their electricity savings over a fixed term in addition to the monthly kWh surcharge. If the program operated in this manner, Efficiency Vermont could be funded primarily by the savings in electricity usage by those who most benefit and the surcharge on all customers could be reduced commensurately now that the program is up and running.

I expect the next legislative session in Vermont again will tackle the issue of expanding Efficiency Vermont beyond electricity to all forms of energy. In the last session the proposal passed but was vetoed by Governor Douglas and his veto was sustained in a special session in July 2007. The primary problem was the funding mechanism ( a tax on Entergy Corporation, owner of Vermont Yankee despite a previous deal the company had with the Legislature). Any proposal to expand Efficiency Vermont should include a funding protocol that includes substantial payment via the savings that accrue to the beneficiaries of the program. For example, if a customer saves 100 Kwh/month in electricity by using the services of EV, 20% (pick a number) of the savings should go to EV.

One could argue that the saver spent some money for property improvements in order to save that $50. That may be true, but if the payback on those expenses in reduced usage and a lower bill occurs in, say, 5 years, paying more into the EV fund might extend the customer's payback period a couple of years, but that's a reasonable trade-off. As it is now, the beneficiary pays EV little or nothing for the specific services received. Fairness suggests that they should...from the savings they receive by improving their energy efficiency.

The general education component of EV should be funded by all electricity users but the services provided to individual customers should be funded by that pool of customers that have implemented energy savings with building or equipment improvements.

Storing sun and wind power | Tech News on ZDNet

Research in this area that will lead to practical, cost-effective solutions would go a long way to enabling sun and wind as viable power sources. Until the reliability of these sources can be dramatically improved by some storage mechanism, sun and wind will remain be bit players on the energy stage.

PC World - A Primer on the FCC's 700MHz Auction

Here's a concise summary of the upcoming auction of the frequencies in the 700 MHz band, the spectrum now occupied by channels 52-69 in the UHF band for over-the-air TV.

This spectrum will fetch BIG $ as the major and minor players in the wireless game compete for the choice chunks in the areas they wish to serve.

For consumers this is a VERY big deal because this spectrum can be the underpinning for wireless broadband nearly anywhere. Using this spectrum will be the most feasible way for broadband to reach the more sparsely settled regions of Vermont and other rural areas.

People are crying for broadband and this is the most likely way for them to get it, along with the cellular broadband that shares the higher frequency ranges with cell voice service, such as Verizon's BroadbandAccess service.

Speculation abounds about Google's plans for wireless service since they announced their intent to bid in January's FCC auction. My guess is they will partner with a carrier that understands the deployment and operation of a customer network. (Verizon??). Perhaps someone on the Vermont Telecommunications Authority has good friends at Google and will persuade them to think kindly of Vermont as they bid!

For sale is 62 MHz of spectrum in the 700MHz band. In late 2005, after a decade of debate, Congress passed a law requiring U.S. TV stations to move to all-digital broadcasts and abandon analog spectrum between channels 52 and 69.
The deadline for TV stations to end broadcasts in the 700MHz band is February 2009.

The spectrum is broken up into five blocks. The C block, a 22MHz of spectrum that has the open-access rules, is broken up into 12 regional licenses across the U.S. A bidder can win one or more of those regional licenses.

The A block is 12MHz, broken up into 176 smaller regions called economic areas, as is the 6MHz E block. The 12MHz B block is broken up into 734 local areas called cellular market areas. Again, bidders can win multiple regional or local licenses.

Finally, 10MHz of spectrum in the D block, paired with about 10MHz set aside for public safety, is a nationwide license.

Congress has budgeted the auctions to raise at least $10 billion, but many observers expect them to cost much more. The FCC set the reserve price for the C block of spectrum at $4.6 billion.

Vermont Court System Has $1Million Shortfall

As I'm writing this, I'm listening to Vermont Public Radio's Vermont Edition interviewing Chief Justice Paul Reiber and the Courts Administrator, Lee Susskind (sp?), about a $1million shortfall, about 3% of its annual expenditures. Lee Susskind says they need $1.6 million more in FY08.

As I listen to it, I hear mostly whining and prattle intended to appeal to the Legislature and the Governor for additional funding. To her credit, the interviewer is asking tough questions and getting somewhat pablum answers, but the whole interview seems designed as a lobbying effort by the courts. I wonder if VPR will offer the same opportunity to other agencies of state government?

It seems quite clear and simple to me. If the budget is not sufficient, then the court system must continue to tighten their belts like any other element of government. They have 16 vacant positions that need to be filled. If the Legislature determines that the courts need additional funding, they should find it within existing budget requests. We cannot simply add more funding for every agency and function of government beyond inlationary pressures.

Reiber is so circumspect about answering questions that he comes off as non-responsive. For example when asked if he has suggestions about how to streamline the Vermont system to perhaps save money, he says it's not his responsibility to do this. This is nonsense. He certainly has the prerogative to make recommendations for legislative action. Refusing to reveal them publicly gives the impression that he is evasive.

Yet, a call just now from the dean of the Vermont Law School, which almost seemed planted, about the notion of 'business courts' was answered by Chief Justice Reiber essentially saying he is making a recommendation to that effect and went on to describe it. I find the Chief Justice's performance inconsistent.

Vermont Court System Has $1Million Shortfall

As I'm writing this, I'm listening to Vermont Public Radio's Vermont Edition interviewing Chief Justice Paul Reiber and the Courts Administrator, Lee Susskin, about a $1million shortfall, about 3% of its annual expenditures. Susskin says they need $1.6 million more in FY08.

As I listen to it, I hear mostly whining and prattle intended to appeal to the Legislature and the Governor for additional funding. To her credit, Jane Lindholm, the interviewer is asking tough questions and getting somewhat pablum answers, but the whole interview seems designed as a lobbying effort by the courts. I wonder if VPR will offer the same opportunity to other agencies of state government?

It seems quite clear and simple to me. If the budget is not sufficient, then the court system must continue to tighten their belts like any other element of government. They have 16 vacant positions that need to be filled. If the Legislature determines that the courts need additional funding, they should find it within existing budget requests. We cannot simply add more funding for every agency and function of government beyond inflationary pressures.

Reiber is so circumspect about answering questions that he comes off as non-responsive. For example when asked if he has suggestions about how to streamline the Vermont system to perhaps save money, he says it's not his responsibility to do this. This is nonsense. He certainly has the prerogative to make recommendations for legislative action. Refusing to reveal them publicly gives the impression that he is evasive.

Yet, a call just now from the dean of the Vermont Law School, which almost seemed planted, about the notion of 'business courts' was answered by Chief Justice Reiber essentially saying he is making a recommendation to that effect and went on to describe it. I find the Chief Justice's performance inconsistent.

Tech.view | Xohm's law | Economist.com

This recent piece in The Economist about WiMAX suggests that it may be the next big thing in wireless technology, at least its proponents, including Intel, Motorola and a few others, think so. Sprint has been a big proponent and actually has announced deployment plans for next year following pilots this year in Chicago and Washington of Xohm. Clearwire is another company that has some spectrum devoted to WiMax.

But the CEO of Sprint has been canned for poor results in the traditional cellular business following its recent merger with Nextel and the deal with Clearwire has been neutered.

I think the jury is out on WiMAX as a contender with the 4G plans of the cellular carriers, none of which in the U.S. have yet endorsed the technology. With Verizon's selection of LTE (long Term Evolution) I think WiMAX's future in this country is cloudy at best.

Senator Sanders Misses the Wireless Boat

Vermont's Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders is questioning Verizon's offer to buy Unicel, Vermont's second largest cell service provider after Verizon, and asking the FCC to impose some strict conditions on the sale. The Senator and his allies fail to see the potential benefits of a dominant provider (or two) in Vermont deploying their best 4G technology in the state in a few years. This technology could provide broadband access throughout the state. Perhaps Vermont could be a beta state for this technology.

Or, perhaps Vermont could encourage wireless providers to use some of the 700 MHz spectrum to be auctioned in January 2008 to provide broadband access to the whole state. See, the real issue here is that Vermont is a tough market to serve because it's small, dispersed, and slow to approve tower siting for full coverage given our tough topography. Perhaps there are some clever incentives that could lure providers. If not, some subsidies may be the only alternative. Pounding on the providers is not the answer

The Senator is also suggesting that the cell phone business become regulated at the state level. But that's what Socialism is, a government-controlled economy where companies do the bidding of those in power in government. The marketplace is the best option for a fast-paced technology based company. A regulated monopoly is a distant second choice.

Verizon Choses LTE for 4G

Here is PC World's take on Verizon's announcement this week that it's 4th generation wireless technology will be LTE (Long Term Evolution), akin to the GSM family of technologies in use in a large portion of the world. Surely this decision by Verizon Wireless was influenced by the benefits of the technology itself, but also because its minority (49%) partner, Vodaphone (the world's largest wireless company), also has selected LTE. In a few years the common technology will facilitate broadband roaming worldwide for Verizon's customers.

This LTE decision along with Verizon's announcement that it will open it's present network to other conforming devices and applications that may run on those devices is a positive strategic run-up to the January FCC auction of the 700MHz spectrum. Will Google decide to work with Verizon to build a network if they are successful in obtaining frequencies in this auction?

Google has tremendous talent and expertise in software and certainly a well-honed network of data centers, but really no customer service infrastructure nor 'last-mile' experience to service customers. A partnership between Verizon, Vodaphone and Google would be a powerful combination of talent, networking infrastructure and data servers for a robust worldwide 4G network.