At Exxon, Making the Case for Oil - NYTimes.com:
This story about Exxon, the world's largest company, is instructive. Like it or not and mostly not...at least in Vermont... petroleum and coal hydrocarbons will be the dominant energy source in the world in 2030. It's difficult to argue with an industry and the vast infrastructure investment required to fuel the world's economies.
While 'green' has many adherents and will attract significant investment, people severely underestimate the transition period from hydrocarbons to something else. Policy makers, please understand this! It's not to say alternative energy sources should not be pursued and developed, but let's be realistic about their impact.
"According to Exxon’s own outlook, global oil demand is set to reach 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up sharply from 86 million barrels a day today.
Meanwhile, renewable fuels, like solar, wind and biofuels, will grow at a brisk pace but they will account for just 2 percent of the world’s energy supplies by then, according to Exxon, while oil, gas and coal will represent 80 percent of global energy needs by 2030.
“For the foreseeable future — and in my horizon that is to the middle of the century — the world will continue to rely dominantly on hydrocarbons to fuel its economy,” Mr. Tillerson [Exxon CEO] says."
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