IEA doesn't see peak oil by 2030 but warns of under-investment - MarketWatch:
The debate about U.S. petroleum and the argument that we should use less (to save the planet?) often rages around the notion of 'peak oil.' Yet few truly understand the term. The Wikipedia discussion is a useful read ("It is important to note that peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil.")
If 'peak oil' means that point in the future when the rate of production, i.e., pumping it out of the ground, in barrels/day, is consistently less this year than last, then that says nothing about the cost of production, thus the price of the product. With this definition, peak oil may occur when the price is too high, certainly not that the world reserves are diminished.
If peak oil means the amount consumed this year is less than last year on a consistent basis, that may be affected by a host of other factors including world government policies around taxation, support for alternative sources of fuel, etc.
The discussion is fascinating, but the real issue is price, not reserves, for energy usage.
If governments wish to apply a 'tax' to carbon fuels, the tax should be applied at the consumer level, not via some obscure cap-and-trade scheme that seems to be the policy du jour. By applying a carbon tax at the consumer level, we have transparency that taxes are being applied, thus we (theoretically) have a vote in how those tax dollars will be spent and applied to energy.
The counter argument is that cap-and-trade allows markets to work. But I submit that cap and trade will have a large component of 'financial engineering' not unlike what we are going through with the manipulation of the mortgage market. I believe these same risks are present in cap and trade because the amounts of money in play are likely to be enormous and that fact alone attracts the n'eer-do-wells of finance.
"http://www.energybulletin.net/node/39308"
2 comments:
IEA may imply that Peak Oil production may not occur until 2030 but in the same breath they say we need five more Saudi Arabia's to produce the 45% more oil we will need. They don't really know where that will come from. They also say that 23 trillion more dollars in investment will be need to hold the line. Again they cast doubt on whether the investment will be fourth coming. Throw in a little more faith based undiscovered oil resource and you get a resounding "We really don't know if we can do any of this"
Terry, I agree that no one has a clue about conditions in 2030. Too many factors interplay for any far-out prediction to be accurate.
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