Vermont's Political Conundrum

This from today's Dwinell Political Report:

"WHERE DID ALL THE CHILDREN GO?

As Governor Douglas pointed out to DPR, in ten years the student population is going to decrease eighteen percent. The Free Press surveyed the towns of Chittenden County. In 1980 sixty-one percent of Jericho’s homes had children at home, in 2000 only forty-six percent did. In Milton fifty-nine percent had children at home in 1980 and in 2000 only forty-two percent. In Winooski children at home fell 35 percent. The numbers in 2005 must be even lower than in 2000, in spite of older children staying at home because of the lack of affordable housing.

Enrollments are declining, precipitously. Yet unbelievably, the number of educators in public schools has increased substantially. Wages have increased, benefit costs too. The State of Vermont has not paid the required pension monies into the Teacher Retirement Fund. A looming train wreck, but who dares take on the education lobby, the third rail of Vermont politics?

POLITICS TO THE RESCUE

According to our sources, Governor Douglas will take on the teachers, head on. The governor has win/lose choice: unsustainable education costs or unsustainable health care. Which one can he win? Health care is a loser for Douglas and the Republicans. Who can be against universal access and lower costs? Right, nobody. That it is unaffordable is irrelevant; the Democrats and their cheerleaders in the media will spin their program as the right thing to do.

On the other hand who can be against a fifteen percent reduction in your property taxes? Right, nobody. But whose ox is gored? Vermont’s overstaffed schools and overpaid teachers. Douglas's strategy puts the Democrats in a quandary. Much of their success and thus effort for the past twenty years since the Democrat legislative era began is to take care of their own, the Vermont NEA's needs at the top of the list.
CRASH COURSE

For Douglas to succeed he must take on the teachers and their union. Will the Democrats protect the teachers or the taxpayers? If the NEA gets its way in South Burlington, the top-tier teachers will earn $81,415 in the last year of their contract. Not bad for 190 days of work in a job with no risk of layoff or defenestration, with full benefits, long holidays, professional development, sick days, personal days, and nice workplace environment.

Douglas is betting that the Democrats will dish the taxpayers and support their ideology, universal health care. Douglas is betting that the public will support him. He is betting that his plan will help recruit and elect legislative Republicans.

TEAMWORK

The Governor has found that governing without either legislative body in his corner is no fun and not successful. The Republicans in the legislature have found that running for office without a coordinated message with the governor is no fun and not successful.

The Governor is committed to a plan that will become the Republican Plan, not just his plan. He will recruit the candidates. He will coordinate the message. He will deliver the message. He will raise the money. He will ask the overtaxed for support. He is betting that money talks.
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THE QUEEN CITY

The wheels are coming off America's second most happy city, so nominated by Self magazine. The rats are leaving the ship and that includes Mayor Clavelle. No wonder he wanted to be governor. He saw the birds coming home to roost.

Socialist turned progressive turned Democrat (now where have we heard that before) Clavelle admits that maybe Burlington’s pension plan commitment in 2000 was a bit more generous that Burlington could afford. Felt good at the time, but now unsustainable.

CRASH COURSE

For Douglas to succeed he must take on the teachers and their union. Will the Democrats protect the teachers or the taxpayers? If the NEA gets its way in South Burlington, the top-tier teachers will earn $81,415 in the last year of their contract. Not bad for 190 days of work in a job with no risk of layoff or defenestration, with full benefits, long holidays, professional development, sick days, personal days, and nice workplace environment.

Douglas is betting that the Democrats will dish the taxpayers and support their ideology, universal health care. Douglas is betting that the public will support him. He is betting that his plan will help recruit and elect legislative Republicans.

TEAMWORK

The Governor has found that governing without either legislative body in his corner is no fun and not successful. The Republicans in the legislature have found that running for office without a coordinated message with the governor is no fun and not successful.

The Governor is committed to a plan that will become the Republican Plan, not just his plan. He will recruit the candidates. He will coordinate the message. He will deliver the message. He will raise the money. He will ask the overtaxed for support. He is betting that money talks."