April 12, 2009

What Will Fill Our Economic Desert? -- (Seeking Alpha link below)

A great deal of common sense gloom is prevalent. Steve Hansen strikes me as a shrewd observer of fiscal and economic reality. He has little faith that we are seeing glimmers of a recovery. Of course we all want to see a build back of vibrancy, but, as Hansen points out, our crushing debt and continuing rise in unemployment are heavy anchors to a turnaround.

"Year to date US Government income (mostly from taxes) is off 14% year-over-year, while expenditures have increased 33%. Revenues are half of expenditures. They have spent about 1/3 of the bailout money, and essentially none of the stimulus (pork) yet. The budget busting shortfall is a hair short of a trillion dollars – or 7% percent of GDP in just the last six months alone.

All is not well. There are no fundamentals which support a strong economic recovery.

The servicing of debt and employment are the primary impediment to a normal recovery. There is only so much investor money lying around. It is not unlimited, and the government only can fill this gap in certain specific circumstances. I see no mechanism to build new jobs yet.

This is not a post WWII young vibrant nation which was one-half of the world’s economy. This is a more mature nation - now only 20% of the world’s economy and continuing to slide.

Instead of trying to redirect our PRODUCTIVE economic base, our leaders want to help the bankers and tell us stories of rainbows and wildflowers. Americans have been lied to so long by their government that any negative news from the government causes an over-reaction because things must be really bad.

Banks are not the economy. And neither is terraforming unless it creates jobs."

What Will Fill Our Economic Desert? -- Seeking Alpha

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