From this article and other reports, I conclude that the chances of a political settlement in Afghanistan are negligible. We simply cannot deal with the radical Islamists, whether in Pakistan or Afghanistan, because they have more to gain by waiting until we tire of the war.
So much agony and death, so few options.
"...But as Washington struggles to broker an endgame for the Afghan war, there is widespread doubt about whether the Haqqanis will negotiate, and whether their patrons in Islamabad will even let them. After a decade of war, there is a growing sense among America’s diplomats, soldiers and spies that the United States is getting out of Afghanistan without ever figuring out how a maddeningly complex game is played.
“Is there any formula for Pakistan to agree to stop supporting the insurgency in Afghanistan and instead help broker and be satisfied with a political settlement?” asked Karl W. Eikenberry, who served as both America’s top military commander in Afghanistan and its ambassador to the country.
“We don’t know the answer to that question,” he said."
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