"...In highly indebted countries, governments have expansively taken resources from the private sector through taxing and borrowing. This leaves the private sector with less vigor to produce jobs and increase productivity, and subsequently wealth for its fellow citizens. This theory, which dates back to David Hume's essay, Of Public Credit published in 1752, is now being played out in real time in the United States. We judge that when an economy is expanding in such a meager fashion it is exposed to an increasing frequency of recessions. We expect such a recessionary event to emerge in 2012 [emphasis added]...."
January 18, 2012
Recession in 2012? Likely Says Hoisington Investment Management Company
This report is commented on by John Mauldin in his 'Outside the Box' newsletter this week and is also referenced in "The Big Picture" blog/newsletter by Martin Rithotlz