Always insightful, I think The Economist gets it right on this subject.
The boom in mobile...'computers' in all shapes and forms on 3G & 4G networks.... will release the industry from its moorings where the service providers with the networks controlled the customer. This is changing as the flood of communications moves to wireless, both voice and data. With smart devices and creative applications, many players will slice the pie horizontally where previously it was a vertically integrated business.
It will be a stupendous time that is presently foreshadowed by the wild success of the iPhone and Apple's Apps store. The carriers will not be losers because those with the physical network infrastructure will be major players as long as they continue to keep the network current and open it at the proper pace. Just think about the passive monitoring applications that can be handled on this network! Truckers who are tied to satellites can now be linked via terrestrial wireless, etc, etc.
"But not everyone will be a winner. As handsets slowly turn into computers, the mobile industry will at last undergo the shift that has been predicted for several years: from being vertically integrated to being sliced into distinct, horizontal technology layers, such as networks, devices, operating systems and applications. The vertical “sausage” that was the industry is becoming a layered “hamburger”, says Carl-Henric Svanberg, the boss of Ericsson, the largest maker of mobile-network gear.
This will transform the economics of the industry. Historically, network operators have been in the strongest position, explains Ben Wood of CCS Insight, a market-research firm. They owned the radio spectrum, built the networks, maintained the relationships with customers—and then grabbed most of the spoils. But in the new world, predicts Mr Wood, they will have to share revenues and profits with providers of software and services, such as Apple, Google and Facebook.
....But despite the economic turmoil elsewhere, the industry seems justified in its confidence that the smart-phone is finally emerging as a powerful, innovative and lucrative new computing platform."
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